Elections in Guatemala, Ecuador, and Argentina urge governments of national unity

(Interamerican Institute for Democracy) Electoral results in Guatemala, Ecuador and Argentina repeat the Latin American phenomenon of partitioning the representation with multiple candidacies that give victory to fragile political minorities. The popular backing, to those who win the elections, is only the victory of a first minority that does not give governability to the elected candidate, something that forebodes the continuation or aggravation of any crisis. This reality urges the conformation of national unity governments that can structure a consistent majority and prevent the dictatorial drift.

Governability, in the “capability of government” area is “that situation in which a set of favorable conditions contribute for the government’s actions.” For the Organization of American States (OAS), “governability means institutional and political stability in the making of decisions, governmental administration, and effectiveness, that is related to the continuity of rules, institutions, and in the steadiness of consistence and intensity of those decisions.”

In the conformation of governments in the presidentialism systems of Latin American democracy, the first component of governability is granted by the popular mandate at elections, meaning the people’s backing for, and trust in, the candidate whom they turn into a president, head of State, and head of the executive branch.

What Latin American electoral systems have in common is the conducting of general elections in which people vote for the president and vice-president of the republic, and for representative members at the legislative branch. Legislators are elected at a first electoral round in which candidates for president and vice-president do not get the majority of votes and a second round of elections, or balloting, ensues between the top two minorities. Results from the second round elect a president with the forced support of the initial tie and grant a mandate that does not modify the conformation of the legislative in which the elected president only has the backing of his original political minority. A president without governability.

The legitimacy of the president with a relative minority that is elected at the second round is further affected by “electoral abstention.” The Inter American Court of Human Rights defines abstention as “simply the non-participation in the act of voting for those who have the right to do so.” The majority of systems in Latin American countries establish an “obligatory suffrage” that considers “suffrage as a right and obligation of the citizenry,” while it is only a right when it is voluntary.

This year in Guatemala’s first round of elections with a 60.08% of the electorate’s participation, candidate Sandra Torres gained 21.10% of support and Bernardo Arevalo 15.51%. At the second round of elections 44.98% of the electorate voted and Arevalo won with 60.90% while Torres only gained 39.10%. Abstentionism won and the real vote for the elected president was 9.44% in the first round and 27.39% in the second round.

In Ecuador, 82.2% of the electorate voted in the first round and Luisa Gonzales received 33.61% backing while Daniel Noboa gained 23.47%. The second round will take place on 15 October and whoever wins will only have a minority in the legislative branch with the likelihood of repeating the ungovernability of President Lasso that has taken the country to the crisis that motivated this anticipated election by “crossed-fire death.”

In Argentina, results of the Primary Open Simultaneous and Obligatory elections (PASO in Spanish), with 69.62% of the electorate participating gave Javier Milei’s party “Libertad” to advance with 30.04% of the votes in his favor. Contending parties; “Together for Change” elected Patricia Bullrich with 28.27% and “Union for the Homeland” elected Sergio Massa with 27.27% of votes. The biggest winner was, once again, absenteeism with 39.38% of the electorate absent. If these indicators remain in the first round of the general elections on 22 October, there will be a second round of voting and the process will again produce a President of a minority.

This is only a repeat of what has already happened in Peru in 2021 when, with 70.05% of the electorate participating, Pedro Castillo in the first round gained 18.92% of popular backing while Keiko Fujimori obtained 13.41%. In the second round, Castillo obtained 50.13% of the voting and Fujimori 49.87%. In Chile in 2021 with 47.33% of the electorate participating in the first round Gabriel Boric obtained 25.83% as the second minority contending with Jose Antonio Kast who obtained 27.91%. In the second round, however, Boric won with 55.87% of votes of the 55.64% electorate participating. In Colombia’s elections in 2022 with 54.98% of registered voters participating, Gustavo Petro obtained 40.34% in the first round and in the second round with 58.17% of registered voters participating he was elected President with 50.44%. All of the above-mentioned governments are minority governments condemned to either stagnate or to drift towards dictatorship.

This is the crisis of the presidentialism system that affects democracy, and until Latin American leaders adopt the adequate system of government which is parliamentarism, it urges every one of them to seek greater legitimacy and governability that is only achievable with governments of national unity established on the basis of “policies of the State.”

*Attorney & Political Scientist. Director of the Interamerican Institute for Democracy.

Translation from Spanish by Edgar L. Terrazas