Dialogue on Venezuela in Mexico is like negotiating with organized crime

(Interamerican Institute for Democracy) The so-called “process of negotiation and dialogue” between the Nicolás Maduro’s dictatorship and the legitimate government of Venezuela, initiated in Mexico with the signing of the memorandum of understanding of August 13, 2021, has served so far to strengthen Maduro’s regime and giving him a free pass, allowing him to repeat the “electoral dictatorship” method and lifting economic sanctions that favor Cuba.

Unilateral suspension of the negotiations by the Venezuelan dictatorship because of the extradition to the US of Colombian businessman fugitive Alex Saab, proves that this is a negotiation with a criminal organization to which political status has been granted.

The first advantage for the Venezuelan dictatorship was the opening of negotiation and dialogue in itself, because it marked the failure of the so-called “legitimate government of Venezuela,” under the leadership of Juan Guaidó, to comply with the “statute for the transition to democracy”, enacted by Guaidó himself, in whose article 2 defined that: «For the purposes of this Statute, transition is understood as the democratization and re-institutionalization itinerary that includes the following stages: liberation from the autocratic regime that oppresses Venezuela, formation of a provisional government of national unity and holding of free elections.”

Article 8 of the same statute declared “the inexistence of an elected president;” article 9 defined Nicolás Maduro as an usurper of Venezuela’s presidential seat; article 10 refers to the “ineffectiveness of the usurped presidential authority;” and, finally, article 14 establishes that “the President of the National Assembly is, in accordance with Article 233 of the Constitution, the legitimate President in charge of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.”

All those articles and the fact that Juan Guaidó is recognized as Legitimate President of Venezuela by almost 60 countries that include Germany, Australia, Brazil, Colombia, the United States and more, credit another win for Maduro’s dictatorship in the dialogue process in Mexico. Because, as they negotiate, the dictatorship doesn’t recognize Guaido’s legitimate authority. And part of the Venezuelan opposition is presenting itself as a “Unitary Platform”, stripping itself of recognition.

On August 13, 2021, the “memorandum of understanding” was signed in Mexico by Jorge Rodríguez on behalf of the government of Maduro, and Gerardo Blayde for the so-called “Unitary Platform”. The memorandum expressed the disposition of both parties to “agree on the necessary conditions so the electoral process enshrined in the Constitution can be carried out, with all guarantees, and understanding the need for all international sanctions (against the dictatorship) to be lifted.”

Later on, they announced elections of mayors and governors as the first agreement of the dialogue, breaking 3 years of Opposition boycott of elections, and calls for abstention, due to lack of democratic conditions.

“We announce to the national and international community our participation in the regional and municipal (electoral) process of November 21st, 2021, under the card of the Democratic Unity Table (MUD in Spanish),” they wrote.

These are elections that will be held with political dissidents still in prison, proven cases of turture, and even the death of political prisoners like the late General Baduel, with persecution and prosecution of opposition leaders, institutionalized human rights violations, and no rule of law.

Even with those conditions, the Opposition agrees to take part of the “electoral dictatorship in which people vote but do not elect.”

More wins for the regime: it wants to lift a yet “indetermined number of sanctions” that were put against a dictatorship that has allowed notorious events to happen such the arrival of Iranian tankers to Venezuela, with oil that is then re-dispatched to Cuba and others; and the recent presence of Nicolás Maduro in Mexico, challenging a US-issued $15 million warrant for his arrest, that the Mexican government chose not to comply with.

Furthermore, Maduro’s regime now enjoys legitimacy enough to possibly have access to international credit. According to the joint declarations in Mexico, “the parties agreed to establish mechanisms for restoring and obtaining resources to meet the needs of the Covid-19 pandemic, including those coming from multilateral organizations.”

With all these advantages, dictator Maduro has suspended negotiations twice. The first time he demanded fugitive Alex Saab to be included in the negotiation team as a Venezuelan diplomat, with the backing of Russia. The second time he suspended meetings in protest at the extradition of Saab, stating that “we will not attend the round that should have started tomorrow (last Monday 25th), in the City of Mexico as a profound expression of our protest against the brutal aggression.”

Compliance with the law, prosecution of transnational criminal conspiracies, money laundering and more crimes represent, for Castro-Chavistas, a “brutal aggression”. They may be right, because that is the way it is for the transnational organized crime group that they integrate alongside the regimes of Cuba, Bolivia and Nicaragua. The problem for those who negotiate with them in Mexico, and those who sponsor them, is: don»t they realize it?

(*) Lawyer and Political Scientist. Director of the Inter-American Institute for Democracy